2017 Potential Blockbusters
by Incendid | created - 24 Dec 2016 | updated - 23 Aug 2018 | PublicMy guesses on what the 25 largest blockbusters of 2017 will be. All guesses are worldwide estimates, and all are recorded in $USD. After each film concludes it's run in theaters, i compare my estimate with the actual worldwide gross, after which i find the difference as a percentage, and then award myself a grade based off of the following system: A+ - 5% AND UNDER A - 10% AND UNDER B - 25% AND UNDER C - 50% AND UNDER D+ - 75% AND UNDER D - 100% AND UNDER F - 100% AND OVER
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1. Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi (2017)
PG-13 | 152 min | Action, Adventure, Fantasy
Rey develops her abilities with the help of Luke Skywalker, as the Resistance prepares for battle against the First Order.
Director: Rian Johnson | Stars: Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher
Votes: 672,423 | Gross: $620.18M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 1.332 Billion
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 1.955 Billion
Actual to Predicted Difference: -68.2%
Guess Grade: D+
Expectation:
Based off of the success of The Force Awakens and Rogue One, it is a given that Episode VIII will surpass one billion, however whether it can surpass the box office of its predecessor will depend on whether or not audiences will accept this new trend of one Star Wars film a year.
Reality:
Didn't earn as much as I thought it would. I think the divided reception the film received from fans may have played a factor in it's box office run. However, it is unfair to compare The Last Jedi's performance to The Force Awakens, as the latter had the advantage of being the first SW film in ten years and the hype that came along with that.
2. Beauty and the Beast (I) (2017)
PG | 129 min | Adventure, Family, Fantasy
A selfish Prince is cursed to become a monster for the rest of his life, unless he learns to fall in love with a beautiful young woman he keeps prisoner.
Director: Bill Condon | Stars: Emma Watson, Dan Stevens, Luke Evans, Josh Gad
Votes: 334,759 | Gross: $504.01M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 1.263 Billion
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 692 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +58.45%
Guess Grade:
Expectation:
The hype around this film has been phenomenal. With a star-studed cast, it has the potential to rake in some serious box office. However, Disney's live-action remakes have been very hit and miss, although they have all done well at the box office. Still i am going with a modest (for Disney at least) prediction.
Reality:
Like I said these Disney live-action remakes can be hit or miss. This one was obviously a hit, a very very big hit.
3. The Fate of the Furious (2017)
PG-13 | 136 min | Action, Crime, Thriller
When a mysterious woman seduces Dominic Toretto into the world of terrorism and a betrayal of those closest to him, the crew face trials that will test them as never before.
Director: F. Gary Gray | Stars: Vin Diesel, Jason Statham, Dwayne Johnson, Michelle Rodriguez
Votes: 254,063 | Gross: $226.01M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 1.236 Billion
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 1.340 Billion
Actual to Predicted Difference: -8.07%
Guess Grade: A
Expectation:
The reason the Fast & Furious franchise has endured for so long is because it has been able to reinvent itself when it needs to. Looking at the success of Furious 7 it would appear that audiences are enjoying the direction in which the franchise is headed. Therefore i can see this installment in the franchise easily joining the billion dollar club.
Reality:
I think I was pretty much on the money here.
4. Despicable Me 3 (2017)
PG | 89 min | Animation, Adventure, Comedy
Gru meets his long-lost, charming, cheerful, and more successful twin brother Dru, who wants to team up with him for one last criminal heist.
Directors: Kyle Balda, Pierre Coffin, Eric Guillon | Stars: Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Trey Parker, Miranda Cosgrove
Votes: 154,565 | Gross: $264.62M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 1.034 Billion
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 905 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +13.38%
Guess Grade: B
Expectation:
Based off of the success of previous films in the franchise, it would appear that Despicable Me 3 should break that billion dollar ceiling, however as its release coincides with the release of several other blockbuster films such as Spider-Man: Homecoming, Dunkirk and War for the Planet of the Apes it could be difficult for the film to surpass it's predecessor. However, it has the potential to go the opposite way, it may be able to dominate the family market, as it's competition doesn't have nearly the same amount of brand recognition. Therefore i am going to guess the film will land just a little behind it's predecessor.
Reality:
The film did exactly what I thought it would. It dominated the family market, running through August with no competition Despicable Me 3 managed to join the billion dollar club.
5. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (2017)
PG-13 | 119 min | Action, Adventure, Comedy
Four teenagers are sucked into a magical video game, and the only way they can escape is to work together to finish the game.
Director: Jake Kasdan | Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Karen Gillan, Kevin Hart, Jack Black
Votes: 447,995 | Gross: $404.52M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 962.07 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 350 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: +93.29% Guess Grade: D
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
PG-13 | 133 min | Action, Adventure, Sci-Fi
Peter Parker balances his life as an ordinary high school student in Queens with his superhero alter-ego Spider-Man, and finds himself on the trail of a new menace prowling the skies of New York City.
Director: Jon Watts | Stars: Tom Holland, Michael Keaton, Robert Downey Jr., Marisa Tomei
Votes: 720,004 | Gross: $334.20M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 880.16 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 750 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +15.96%
Guess Grade: B
Expectation:
With Tom Holland's Spider-Man debuting in Civil War to ecstatic reviews and reactions from critics and audiences alike, it is clear that audiences still want to see a new Spider-Man film. Every Spider-Man film has grossed more than 700 million at the worldwide box office. This installment seems poised to be a force at the box office, however it will have a lot of competition with War of the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk coming out in the weeks following Homecoming's release. Therefore it will most likely follow a similar path to that of Guardians of the Galaxy at the box office.
Reality:
The film did a lot better than I expected. I think the film benefited from the hype Tom Holland's Spider-Man generated in Civil War and this translated into the box office.
7. Coco (I) (2017)
PG | 105 min | Animation, Adventure, Drama
Aspiring musician Miguel, confronted with his family's ancestral ban on music, enters the Land of the Dead to find his great-great-grandfather, a legendary singer.
Directors: Lee Unkrich, Adrian Molina | Stars: Anthony Gonzalez, Gael García Bernal, Benjamin Bratt, Alanna Ubach
Votes: 591,076 | Gross: $209.73M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 807 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 810 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -0.36%
Guess Grade: A+
Expectation:
In previous years, I have underestimated Pixar films, with both Finding Dory and Inside Out grossing more than 850 million worldwide. Coco is opening to little competition and should have no problem dominating the animated box office for at least a couple of weeks.
Reality:
I was so close.
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
PG-13 | 136 min | Action, Adventure, Comedy
The Guardians struggle to keep together as a team while dealing with their personal family issues, notably Star-Lord's encounter with his father, the ambitious celestial being Ego.
Director: James Gunn | Stars: Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Vin Diesel
Votes: 760,150 | Gross: $389.81M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 863.75 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 1.012 Billion
Actual to Predicted Difference: -15.80%
Guess Grade: B
Expectation:
There is no question in my mind that the follow up to 2014's surprise success Guardians of the Galaxy will be a box office gold mine for Disney and Marvel. The question is how much of a success will it be? The answer, a massive success, if you base it off of the reception to the trailers and the franchise's name recognition. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 has a real chance at becoming the fifth film in the MCU to surpass one billion dollars.
Reality:
I got a little bit carried away, I overestimated the effect of the hype train, that being said the film still earned almost a $100 million more than it's predecessor, making it one of the more successful sequels on this list.
9. Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
PG-13 | 130 min | Action, Adventure, Comedy
Imprisoned on the planet Sakaar, Thor must race against time to return to Asgard and stop Ragnarök, the destruction of his world, at the hands of the powerful and ruthless villain Hela.
Director: Taika Waititi | Stars: Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, Cate Blanchett, Mark Ruffalo
Votes: 816,641 | Gross: $315.06M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 853.97 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 721 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +16.88%
Guess Grade: B
Expectation:
Fans have high expectations for Thor: Ragnarok and the hype-train has begun to pick up speed. Each Thor film has made more money than the last, so i predict this film will make more than 700 million.
Reality:
Ragnarok exceeded expectations, including mine.
10. Wonder Woman (2017)
PG-13 | 141 min | Action, Adventure, Fantasy
When a pilot crashes and tells of conflict in the outside world, Diana, an Amazonian warrior in training, leaves home to fight a war, discovering her full powers and true destiny.
Director: Patty Jenkins | Stars: Gal Gadot, Chris Pine, Robin Wright, Lucy Davis
Votes: 699,969 | Gross: $412.56M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 821.84 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 743 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +10%
Guess Grade: A
Expectation:
With the success of Suicide Squad and BvS: Dawn of Justice, it would be a surprise if Wonder Woman were to fail. The film should comfortably gross 500 million and granted it has the legs and is released to favorable reviews, Wonder Woman will be able to gross upwards of 700 million.
Reality:
I was right, I think I underestimated the impact Wonder Woman being the first female-led superhero film, as this factor certainly had an impact on WW's box office run.
11. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
PG-13 | 129 min | Action, Adventure, Fantasy
Captain Jack Sparrow is pursued by old rival Captain Salazar and a crew of deadly ghosts who have escaped from the Devil's Triangle. They're determined to kill every pirate at sea...notably Jack.
Directors: Joachim Rønning, Espen Sandberg | Stars: Johnny Depp, Geoffrey Rush, Javier Bardem, Orlando Bloom
Votes: 346,256 | Gross: $172.56M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 794.86 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 650 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: +20.05% Guess Grade: B
12. Dunkirk (2017)
PG-13 | 106 min | Action, Drama, History
Allied soldiers from Belgium, the British Commonwealth and Empire, and France are surrounded by the German Army and evacuated during a fierce battle in World War II.
Director: Christopher Nolan | Stars: Fionn Whitehead, Barry Keoghan, Mark Rylance, Tom Hardy
Votes: 740,673 | Gross: $188.37M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 527.26 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 690 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: -26.73% Guess Grade: C
13. Justice League (2017)
PG-13 | 120 min | Action, Adventure, Fantasy
Fueled by his restored faith in humanity and inspired by Superman's selfless act, Bruce Wayne enlists the help of his new-found ally, Diana Prince, to face an even greater enemy.
Director: Zack Snyder | Stars: Ben Affleck, Gal Gadot, Jason Momoa, Ezra Miller
Votes: 478,799 | Gross: $229.02M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 657.92 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 936 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -34.89%
Guess Grade: C
Expectation:
In spite of less than favourbale reviews from critics, audiences have shown they are excited to see what the DC Cinematic Universe has to offer. Out of all the films on the upcoming DCCU roster, Justice League will most likely be the most successful in terms of box office return. However, the success of Justice League may depend on both the critical and commercial success of Wonder Woman, as audiences may be trepidatious if Wonder Woman does not meet expectations. For now I predict Justice League's box office will go the way of Dawn of Justice and sit just below the billion dollar mark.
Reality:
Justice League SHOULD have easily made one billion at the box office, however audiences and critics alike weren't impressed with the film, along with highly publicised production problems and a marketing campaign that began 18 months prior to the release date all contributed to Justice League's underwhelming performance.
14. Logan (2017)
R | 137 min | Action, Drama, Sci-Fi
In a future where mutants are nearly extinct, an elderly and weary Logan leads a quiet life. But when Laura, a mutant child pursued by scientists, comes to him for help, he must get her to safety.
Director: James Mangold | Stars: Hugh Jackman, Patrick Stewart, Dafne Keen, Boyd Holbrook
Votes: 832,169 | Gross: $226.28M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 619.02 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 587 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: +5.31% Guess Grade: A
15. Transformers: The Last Knight (2017)
PG-13 | 154 min | Action, Adventure, Sci-Fi
A deadly threat from Earth's history reappears and a hunt for a lost artifact takes place between Autobots and Decepticons, while Optimus Prime encounters his creator in space.
Director: Michael Bay | Stars: Mark Wahlberg, Anthony Hopkins, Josh Duhamel, Laura Haddock
Votes: 168,968 | Gross: $130.17M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 605.42 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 1.025 Billion
Actual to Predicted Difference: -51.47%
Guess Grade: D+
Expectation:
The previous installment in the franchise, Age of Extinction, succeeded due to a strong foreign box office. If this film can tap into that same vein it will probably surpass one billion. However, this installment could potentially fall victim to franchise fatigue if it does not introduce new elements that shake up the established formula.
Reality:
Whilst the film did very well in China, it underperformed in pretty much every other market. Domestically, the film $100 million less than Revenge of the Fallen, signaling to me that despite a solid gross of 600 million, this will be the last Transformers film.
16. Kong: Skull Island (2017)
PG-13 | 118 min | Action, Adventure, Fantasy
After the Vietnam war, a team of scientists explores an uncharted island in the Pacific, venturing into the domain of the mighty Kong and must fight to escape a primal Eden.
Director: Jordan Vogt-Roberts | Stars: Tom Hiddleston, Samuel L. Jackson, Brie Larson, John C. Reilly
Votes: 348,601 | Gross: $168.05M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 566.65 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 550 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: +2.98% Guess Grade: A+
17. War for the Planet of the Apes (2017)
PG-13 | 140 min | Action, Adventure, Drama
After the apes suffer unimaginable losses, Caesar wrestles with his darker instincts and begins his own mythic quest to avenge his kind.
Director: Matt Reeves | Stars: Andy Serkis, Woody Harrelson, Steve Zahn, Karin Konoval
Votes: 283,988 | Gross: $146.88M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 490.71 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 715 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -37.20%
Guess Grade: C
Expectation:
Apes has tough competition to overcome, i have been generous because i expect a strong outing from fans. Additionally Dawn of the planet of the Apes did quite well while having quite a bit of competition, so i expect a similar box office.
Reality:
Like I said my prediction was quite generous and I knew one film coming out in that late July/ early August was going to take a hit at the box office and unfortunately War took the brunt of it.
18. Kingsman: The Golden Circle (2017)
R | 141 min | Action, Adventure, Comedy
After the Kingsman's headquarters is destroyed and the world is held hostage, an allied spy organization in the United States is discovered. These two elite secret agencies must band together to defeat a common enemy.
Director: Matthew Vaughn | Stars: Taron Egerton, Colin Firth, Mark Strong, Channing Tatum
Votes: 363,412 | Gross: $100.23M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 410.90 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 540 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: -27.15% Guess Grade: C
19. The Mummy (2017)
PG-13 | 110 min | Action, Adventure, Fantasy
An ancient Egyptian princess is awakened from her crypt beneath the desert, bringing with her malevolence grown over millennia and terrors that defy human comprehension.
Director: Alex Kurtzman | Stars: Tom Cruise, Sofia Boutella, Annabelle Wallis, Russell Crowe
Votes: 206,344 | Gross: $80.10M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 409.23 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 570 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: -32.83% Guess Grade: C
20. Cars 3 (2017)
G | 102 min | Animation, Adventure, Comedy
Lightning McQueen sets out to prove to a new generation of racers that he's still the best race car in the world.
Director: Brian Fee | Stars: Owen Wilson, Cristela Alonzo, Chris Cooper, Nathan Fillion
Votes: 122,292 | Gross: $152.90M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 383.93 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 707 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -59.22%
Guess Grade: D+
Expectation:
Looking at past films in the franchise, it would seem that the third outing will just creep over 700 million. IF the film can achieve better critical reception than its predecessors, then it has the potential to outperform my prediction. But for now, i am keeping it around the 700 million mark.
Reality:
I don't know what I was thinking. It really didn't have a chance of making anywhere near my prediction.
21. Fifty Shades Darker (2017)
R | 118 min | Drama, Mystery, Romance
While Christian wrestles with his inner demons, Anastasia must confront the anger and envy of the women who came before her.
Director: James Foley | Stars: Dakota Johnson, Jamie Dornan, Eric Johnson, Eloise Mumford
Votes: 111,554 | Gross: $114.38M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 376.96 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 610 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: -47.22% Guess Grade: C
22. The Lego Batman Movie (2017)
PG | 104 min | Animation, Action, Adventure
A cooler-than-ever Bruce Wayne must deal with the usual suspects as they plan to rule Gotham City, while discovering that he has accidentally adopted a teenage orphan who wishes to become his sidekick.
Director: Chris McKay | Stars: Will Arnett, Michael Cera, Rosario Dawson, Ralph Fiennes
Votes: 172,677 | Gross: $175.75M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 311.95 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 640 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -68.92%
Guess Grade: D+
Expectation:
HYPE! HYPE! Warner Bros. is hoping that they can repeat the success of the LEGO movie. It may happen, it may not.
Reality:
I don't know what I was thinking. Completely wrong.
23. Alien: Covenant (2017)
R | 122 min | Horror, Sci-Fi, Thriller
The crew of a colony ship, bound for a remote planet, discover an uncharted paradise with a threat beyond their imagination, and must attempt a harrowing escape.
Director: Ridley Scott | Stars: Michael Fassbender, Katherine Waterston, Billy Crudup, Danny McBride
Votes: 304,192 | Gross: $74.26M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 240.89 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 580 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: -82.61% Guess Grade: D
24. Smurfs: The Lost Village (2017)
PG | 90 min | Animation, Adventure, Comedy
A mysterious map sets Smurfette and her friends Brainy, Clumsy and Hefty on an exciting race through the Forbidden Forest, leading to the discovery of the biggest secret in Smurf history.
Director: Kelly Asbury | Stars: Demi Lovato, Rainn Wilson, Joe Manganiello, Jack McBrayer
Votes: 24,237 | Gross: $45.02M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 197.18 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 540 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: -93% Guess Grade: D
25. Baywatch (2017)
R | 116 min | Action, Comedy, Crime
Devoted lifeguard Mitch Buchannon butts heads with a brash new recruit, as they uncover a criminal plot that threatens the future of the bay.
Director: Seth Gordon | Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Zac Efron, Alexandra Daddario, Priyanka Chopra Jonas
Votes: 202,292 | Gross: $58.06M
Actual Worldwide Gross: 177.85 Million Predicted Worldwide Gross: 400 Million Actual to Predicted Difference: 76.88% Guess Grade: D
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